Also true, though this song in particular doesn’t have much variation. The beat is pretty steady through the entire song, with no real offbeats. That’s how we both knew we hit the note, it was the same pattern we’d been playing over and over for the last few minutes.

I’m not going to try and figure out the TRUE probability of it, just a rough estimate. “Very unlikely” is good enough for me, heh.

The problem with your math is that it assumes an equal skill level and an equal level of difficulty for each and every note (which is, clearly, not the case).